You win, Eurosceptics! I give up!

I went to bed last night a full European citizen and I woke up this morning… what? I don’t know, and won’t until the dust that David Cameron just kicked up into the air has settled.

His decision really could be the first link in a chain reaction that ends with the UK sliding off the edge of the European Union map. As a fully indoctrinated europhile with a degree in ‘European Studies and Modern Languages’, I suppose I should declare a certain measure of bias on this subject, since I will obviously argue in favour of Britain being a part of ‘ever closer union’, politically, fiscally, maybe even mathematically or literarily, with our fellow member states.

But at the point we’ve now reached, do you know what? Enough! Go ahead! Bring on the referendum!

Most pro-Europeans suspect that the petty nationalists in this country are the majority; they fear that the sustained attack on ‘barmy’ EU regulations in the tabloids (for ‘barmy’ read ‘fictitious’) has taken its toll and that we, as a nation, are ready to stampede in blind, sovereignty-fueled hysteria towards the door marked ‘sortie’ (that’s French for 'exit', philistines.)

When I say “we, as a nation” I should point out that I am of course referring specifically to the English. I'm not sure what the balance of opinion in the other home nations is, but I’m confident anyway that the Sun- and Mail-reading majority in England have the numbers to drag the rest of Britain out of the door with them if a referendum is called. And there seems to be nothing we pro-Europeans can do about it. Despite the heart-rending determination of the feeble junior coalition partners, the Liberal Democrats, I am just about ready to give up, admit defeat, and let Britain haul anchor and set sail definitively for the desolation of the mid-Atlantic.

As I let go of my stubborn resolve to keep the UK in the EU, a morbid curiosity begins to grow in its place, and I begin to wonder: What will happen to Britain once the europhobes have won the day and we are cast adrift? A few scenarios spring to mind:

1.      Our banking industry, freed from the shackles of overzealous European regulation by jealous Frogs, would continue to do exactly what it did before, taking the kind of massive risks that make bankers rich quick. Bonuses would soar, predictably but exponentially, only to explode years later in the now all-too-familiar glittering shower of bailouts.

2.       The regulation-obsessed Europeans would have to concentrate on menial work such as ‘making things’ to spur growth, much as the Germans always have done, which is perhaps why Germany is in such a relatively strong post-recession situation now.

3.       The UK would maintain its relationship, special or otherwise, with the USA. Meanwhile, other superpowers would continue to emerge, creating a multi-polar world with influential centres in China, India and Brazil. Could the EU develop into one of those superpowers? Despite the current crisis, it could. The most powerful growing economies have in common a certain hugeness of scale. Now, if we remove the United Kingdom, the EU still has a population of over 440 million and a total GDP of about $13 trillion. In size, then, its economy sits somewhere between those of the USA and China, although new members are still queueing up to join the European club. With such giants as these stealing the global show, how would the $2.5 trillion UK economy compete for attention? Our whole island would look increasingly like a barren, unsightly appendage to the gleaming City of London.

A word of caution, however, to the europhiles: Maybe there is some financial risk involved in accepting more careful regulation of the City. There is risk in being part of Europe as well as being out of it. There is risk involved in every such decision, and will be until economists start to make predictions that come true (don’t hold your breath). Until such time, from a purely rational and economic point of view, the decision Cameron made last night resembled the choice between red and black at a roulette table. And when the odds are evenly stacked, gamblers can tend to fall back on instinct and superstition.

If I were in Cameron's position, my own instinct would be to carry the European project boldly forward, with a suitably heroic and optimistic demeanour, but this is perhaps where my own previously declared bias comes into effect. Clearly, Cameron has no such instinct, or if he has it, it is suppressed by other considerations...

But if this is the way it must be, fine! If this is what the British people want, fine! Let’s have the referendum and leave the EU. As things are, we are only holding the other member states back.

Arguing against committed xenophobes and the professional cynics who incite them is an impossible task and a supreme waste of energy. Revoke the benefits of EU membership immediately and see what happens, I implore you, David Cameron! For why struggle so hard against the rock-like obstinacy of eurosceptics? Why bother what happens to England? Why care, when it is so easy simply to move to France or Germany, and be part of Europe there?