Every vote for Labour counts, even in 'safe' seats

Because of the UK’s first-past-the-post voting system, many Brits will feel like their vote won’t count on Thursday. But in an election as close as this, every vote for the Labour Party could make a difference.

If you live in what is known as a ‘safe’ seat in Britain , such as Theresa May’s constituency in Maidenhead, where the Tories got 56% of the votes in 2010, you might quite understandably conclude that it doesn’t matter whether you vote or not.

But because no party is likely to win a majority in parliament on 7th May, it may not be just the number of MPs each party has that’s important — the share of the national vote could make a difference, too, and that means every vote.

Yesterday, the Sunday Times quoted ‘senior Tories’ saying David Cameron would declare victory on Friday “if he gets the most seats and votes”. Not just seats  — votes too!

He won’t be alone. The Sun and other UK newspapers have probably already drafted headlines declaring the Tories the winners, which they are just itching to print on 8th May with the numbers filled in.

Those headlines could have an impact on how the public interprets the results of the election. By saying Cameron has done enough to remain Prime Minister, the Tory-supporting rags want to lay the groundwork for their first attack when a government led by Ed Miliband is formed.

I say ‘when’ a government led by Miliband is formed, although it’s not certain. At 4/5, Paddy Power reckons Miliband is slightly more likely to be the first Prime Minister after the general election than Cameron, who is priced at evens.

Those papers want to plant the seed in people's heads that Miliband's Labour Party is not the legitimate winner regardless of the actual result, but it will be easier for them and Cameron if the Tories get more votes than Labour overall.

The two parties are currently neck and neck in the polls, with 33%-34% of voters saying they would vote for each. It will be important who comes out on top.

But when it comes to the share of the national vote, the Tories have an advantage: The people who usually vote for them, who live in their safe seats, the old and the wealthy, always vote, rain or shine, no matter what. Safe Tory seats had much higher turnouts than safe Labour seats in 2010.

So some voters living in safe Labour seats might think they don’t need to vote, or that they can vote for a ‘fun’ party like the Raving Monster Loonies or the Communists or the Greens. Harriet Harman’s going to win in Camberwell & Peckham whatever happens, so they won’t be letting a Tory in by not voting for her, they think.

Wrong. They might be letting two Tories in: Cameron and George Osborne.

If those voters want a different Prime Minister and Chancellor of the Exchequer, if they want to put an end to tax cuts for people on six figure salaries, if they want to save public services like the NHS, they must realise that their votes, and the votes of thousands of people living in safe seats, really could make a difference. But only if they vote Labour.

Latest poll of polls from May2015.com